Ten Years After Brexit, Britons Are Against It – but the EU and UK Are on Different Paths Now

In his article entitled Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future, Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, cites poll figures showing that most Britons would like to rejoin the European Union. But he is silent on whether the British élites want this and whether EU leaders are ready for such a turn of events.

The figures cited by Mark Leonard testify to fundamental changes in British public opinion on EU membership as compared to 2016. Respondents point to negative effects of Brexit on:

the cost of living (66 percent);

the British economy in general (65 percent);

opportunities for young people (57 percent); and

illegal immigration (56 percent).

Now 57 percent of people believe Britain was wrong to leave the European Union, and only 30 percent think it was the right choice.

If a referendum on EU membership were to be held now, 52 percent would vote in favor, and only 31 percent against. Given that 17 percent do not know or would not vote, some 60 per cent would say ‘yes’ at a real referendum.

And this is not just a response to Britain’s economic and social problems after 2016. Britons have suddenly seen their Continental neighbors as allies. Mark Leonard attributes this to Trump’s tariff policy and aggressive claims that alienate allies.

Now 53 percent of Britons regard Germany as an ally (and 27 percent, as a necessary partner) For France, the figures stand at 51 и 28 percent, and across the EU, at 45 and 32 percent. And only 18 percent of Britons see the USA as an ally (53 percent, as a necessary partner).

A rapidly worsened attitude towards the USA unites European countries, but such a quick response is a poor basis for their new unity – especially given that Washington’s policy may change.

The compilation of sociological facts made by Mark Leonard should generally be considered a push for the UK’s return to the EU. Many European leaders already welcome it in public. French president Emmanuel Macron has said that the door is ‘always open’. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, affirmed that Spain would ‘absolutely’ support British membership. Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, has explicitly named the UK as a candidate for membership and said, ‘we need a UK voice in Europe. We really miss you guys.’.

But does the European Union need it, especially amid an economic crisis? For Britain, whose crisis is even deeper, will claim subsidies and quotas for its industry.

After Britain left the EU, London has entered into dozens of bilateral trade agreements with countries and blocs across the globe. The most recent ones were concluded with Israel and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. How compatible are their requirements on mutual trade with EU policy, and is London ready to depart from them?

After 2016, the United Kingdom has pursued a policy of attracting new migrants. When citizens of EU member States, including new ones (Poland and the Baltics), who had been employed in construction and the service sector, began leaving en masse after Brexit, Britain was flooded by African and South Asian migrants.

Should Britain return to the EU, they will all get legal rights in the European Union, particularly to migrate further. Are they welcome in Germany, France and other countries that face their own migration problems?

Charles de Gaulle, in his time, opposed Great Britain’s membership in the European Economic Community, as he rightly saw it as a conduit for U.S. interests. Only after de Gaulle stepped down, and with direct support from Washington, did London manage to join the EEC. So why should the European Union retrace this path now – especially given that U.S. policy is a volatile one, and that Washington and London may resume their special partnership?

Original publication: https://ecfr.eu/publication/brexit-isnt-working-british-voters-are-ready-for-a-european-future/