Central and East European Countries Keep Clinging to the Gas Model Even Though Its Constraints Are Already Visible

Gas-lit: The Three Seas Initiative is out of step with a clean-energy future, Szymon Kardaś, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, criticizes the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) that is still staking on gas infrastructure even after the dependence on Russian gas was reduced considerably. The author notes that five of the Initiative’s nine flagship energy projects are still gas-related, and calls for redirecting the new EUR 2 billion fund primarily towards clean energy, hydrogen, storage, and grid interconnections.

Behind this well-founded criticism there is a deeper-lying problem: even after the difficult experience of 2022, many countries of the region continue acting by inertia and defending their gas investments already made – instead of revamping their energy agenda.

The author suggests a fairly simple solution: to change the new Three Seas fund’s priorities. Yet in practice such reorientation would entail tough political wrangling within member States. Their gas infrastructure is already there, with influential economic interests around it, and to abandon these assets is extremely disadvantageous in the short term. So even if there is a political disposition to quickly redirect investment towards clean energy, it will be no easy task and require overcoming considerable domestic resistance.

It is quite revealing how cautious and fragmented the energy transition is even in the countries hardest hit by Russian energy dependence. Many countries in the region are still quite wary of a rapid shift away from fossil fuel – fearful of growing energy prices and of their industries becoming uncompetitive. Against this backdrop, the new fund risks becoming an additional provider of funding for the existing activities rather than a real tool for restructuring the region’s energy sector.

And in fact the Three Seas initiative points, once again, to Central and Eastern Europe’s typical issue: the need to change understood but bumping into a strong inertia of the investments already made and the economic interests already formed. Gas projects are still being prioritized not only as they provide short-term energy security but also because influential interest groups have formed around them – vocal advocates of staying on the current course.

Notably, even with the new EUR 2 billion fund in place, the real scale of change may be limited. This is a hefty amount, of course, but it will hardly alter the balance of power seriously in a region still dominated by the Gas First logic. Besides, many member States are still wary of the European Union’s ambitious climate goals, fearing that too rapid a push towards clean energy could affect their economies and social stability.

The article shows how slowly and painfully the old energy model is being phased out even in the most vulnerable parts of Europe. So long as the Three Seas countries continue balancing between their need to reduce dependence on gas and desire to maximize payback from the investments already made, this initiative will remain a symbol of an incomplete energy transition rather than an efficient tool for building a more modern and sustainable energy system in the region. And there remains the risk that the region will continue falling behind western Europe in clean technology development, which could have a long-term adverse impact on its economic competitiveness and energy security.

Original publication: https://ecfr.eu/article/gas-lit-the-three-seas-initiative-is-out-of-step-with-a-clean-energy-future/