AfD Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Marks a Turning Point for Germany

The Alternative for Germany (AfD)’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt’s election is a historic breakthrough and, without doubt, a turning point in German democracy. For the first time since 1945, a party labelled extreme right has scored a landslide victory in a state election.

Such a successful campaign shows that the Alternative for Germany has secured a more stable electorate. This means a great strength test in store for Chancellor Merz’s government, the CDU, and the federal institutions that shaped Germany’s post-war democracy.

This matter is discussed in an expert commentary by Grégoire Roos, director of Europe and Russia and Eurasia programs at Chatham House.

On 6 September 2026, the party won 43.8 percent of the vote. Now AfD holds 39 of the 83 seats in the state’s legislature (Landtag), just three short of an absolute majority. Yet, beyond the political emotion, the result should be treated cautiously. Its main significance clearly lies in the way the AfD has mobilized voters and kindled a more positive political appeal.

It should be borne in mind that Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany’s least populous states. Depopulation has left many smaller communities ageing and struggling to sustain local services. Saxony-Anhalt experienced a substantial decline since reunification to around 2.12 million inhabitants today. The accompanying closure of public services has reinforced residents’ belief that the region is neglected by mainstream parties. The prospect of further plant closures made the future of skilled employment a sensitive political concern in the campaign.

This resulted in a statistical shift in local politics. In July, 36 percent of voters trusted the AfD most to solve the state’s problems, compared with just 9 percent before the 2021 election. 44 percent preferred an AfD-led government. The electorate’s motivation has clearly shifted from punishing the CDU to granting the AfD power.

The AfD’s near-majority may itself become a political advantage. The most significant repercussion will surely be on the Bundesrat, the upper chamber of the German parliament. Saxony-Anhalt’s government has four votes in the Bundesrat and could use them to oppose federal legislation, especially on state finances or administration. Four votes cannot obstruct federal bills, but they may become decisive in close motions and lend the party strategic weight. An AfD-led state government would also amplify the party’s calls for an end to sanctions on Russia and military support for Ukraine.

The AfD received 576,037 votes in a state with 1.71 million eligible voters. That is roughly 1 percent of Germany’s 59.2 million strong electorate. The breakthrough is thus very localized for now. But it is certainly a breakthrough. Whether it lasts depends on how far the AfD campaign’s recipe can be replicated – and if the AfD can now turn electoral backing into durable space for development. Germany’s right wing definitely has every chance to succeed.

Original publication: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/09/afds-victory-saxony-anhalt-marks-turning-point-germany-perspective-important