France Fears Germany’s New Identity

Germany will be unable to lead in 21st-century Europe without reinventing its own identity. Germany’s leadership will be based on national self-confidence. But other European countries see it as a threat.

Jacob Ross, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), predicts this in his article that appeared in the Internationale Politik Quarterly journal.

What Changes Is Germany Undergoing?

It is no longer the world champion in exports. The German economic model – which seemed unbeatable for years – suddenly appears ill-suited to the 21st century and in need of reform.

Germany is still a wealthy country that can spend much money. But its priorities have changed. Annalena Baerbock, foreign minister in Scholz’ government, stated on 24 February 2022 that Germany had ‘woken up to a different world’. Before that, Germany’s political elites had been living in a dream world. They had believed in Francis Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ and the triumph of the democratic-liberal order longer than anyone else.

Since 2022, Germany suddenly began asserting a leadership role in EU security policy and prioritized military spending. But a significant portion of German funds – initially from the Scholz coalition’s EUR 100 billion ‘special fund’ and then as defense spending was ramped up under Merz – was earmarked for German and non-European products rather than French ones.

When Berlin decided to purchase American F-35 jets in 2022, many politicians in Paris were disappointed. Disappointment grew when the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), launched by Scholz, was planned to include systems from the United States and Israel but not from France. And when Merz finally expressed doubt in February 2026 that the core of FCAS – a sixth-generation fighter jet – could be built in collaboration with France, that disappointment turned to anger in many quarters.

The success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is partly built on East German revanchism, with its proponents rejecting alignment with the West and constitutional patriotism and instead championing a nationalist renaissance that plays on references to Prussia, demands a hegemonic role for Germany in Central Europe, and characterizes Macron’s European policy as a legacy of Napoleonic conquest.

What does it mean to, and why does it frighten France?

The French ask what would fill the void in German identity once the title of ‘the world’s export champion’ had faded and brands like Volkswagen or Siemens which, seeking to remain competitive as global companies, had fully relocated their production abroad.

German-Israeli historian Dan Diner stated, in an interview with the Le Monde, that the postwar Federal Republic of Germany is in the process of becoming Germany once again. The fact that (West) German national identity after 1945 was largely based on economic successes was viewed in France with benevolent bewilderment. That this identity now seems to be shifting toward the defense industry raises questions.

European NATO States face looming conflicts over resource allocation. NATO defense spending targets (3.5 percent of GDP by 2035) cannot be met while simultaneously maintaining social welfare systems at current levels. France and Italy, whose fiscal spaces are highly constrained, realize this, whereas Germany will have slightly more time before battles over resource allocation and conflicting priorities between defense and social spending kick in.

In the 2010s, France began to fall behind Germany in many key economic indicators. Its status as the continent’s leading foreign and security policy power had become a vital source of collective self-confidence in Paris. Now Germany may snatch the leadership from France in this area, too.

After 80 years of living without a German threat, the French now believe that their country may, once again, face an immediate eastern neighbor that puts superiority in military force and technology above peace economics.

Original publication: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/france-fears-german-identity-flux