Zelensky offers to take part in Trump’s war against Iran. This could draw Europe into a war it opposes.

In his article published in the Responsible Statecraft online magazine, Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, points out that Kyiv’s strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea represents Zelensky’s attempt to fuse the two wars into one.

Zelensky is not merely trying to draw greater American support into its war against Russia. He is pursuing something far more consequential: merging the Ukraine war with the U.S.-Iran conflict into a single strategic theater.

If the two wars become one, Ukraine ceases to be merely a recipient of American military assistance and instead becomes a direct participant in Washington’s war with Tehran. By the same token, the United States would no longer simply be Ukraine's principal arms supplier. It would become an active belligerent against Russia through a conflict that stretches from the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf.

Under both Biden’s and Trump’s administrations, Washington's guiding principle remained consistent: help Ukraine defend itself without allowing the United States to become a direct combatant against Russia.

The Trump administration’s war with Iran has produced a dilemma many critics predicted. Washington possesses overwhelming military superiority, yet it has suffered a strategic defeat at the hand of Tehran. Iran has demonstrated an ability to widen the battlefield horizontally and to deal strikes across multiple theaters.

Trump’s vulnerability creates a historic opening for Kyiv. Instead of appearing as a country dependent on American assistance, Ukraine can now present itself as a strategic asset capable of helping Washington turn a military debacle into a victory.

In Zelensky’s opinion, the Caspian Sea represents precisely such a possibility. Opening pressure on Iran from the north would complicate Tehran's military planning, force it to redistribute scarce resources, and reduce its ability to dictate where the conflict is fought.

This is how Trita Parsi assesses the situation that emerged after a Ukrainian missile hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea and Iran answered with threats of a missile strike on Ukraine. But what could it mean for Europe? European NATO allies and the European Union are generally far deeper involved in the Russo-Ukrainian war than the USA is. While Trump constantly insists on a peace based on mutual concessions from Kyiv and Moscow, the European leaders want a victory for Kyiv.

In the case of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Europe’s role is quite different. European countries oppose it, for they are its main victims outside the Middle East, due to growing energy prices, and reject the U.S. logic based on its total support for Israel and desire to destroy Iran’s nuclear program militarily.

The fusion of these two conflicts and creation of a single fighting space between the Dnieper and the Strait of Hormuz put Europe into an ambivalent position. Far from ceasing their support for Ukraine, European countries will be forced to accept U.S. action against Iran and even coordinate joint efforts.

This is not at all in the interests of Europe – but Zelensky seems to ignore it. Or he deems his European partners’ interests inferior to his desire to retain and bolster U.S. support.

Trita Parsi concludes that if Trumps decides to wage the two wars at once, it could lead to a disaster that both Biden and Trump have sought to avoid. Here it should be added that the disaster would mostly affect Europe due to its unconditional support for Zelensky.

Original publication: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zelensky-iran-war-trump/