The Pact Enters into Force: Uncertainties and Risks of New European Migration Governance

On 12 June 2026, the European Union’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum came into force. However, it remains difficult to grasp how it will work in practice. What can already be glimpsed today does not inspire optimism. This is how Francesco Pasetti, senior research fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB), describes the new EU migration law.

Since 12 June, the new Pact on Migration and Asylum applies in Europe. It sets out a regulatory framework that reshapes migration governance. The pact provides for a change of priorities from asylum to returns. Asylum in EU countries will now be more difficult to obtain, and unsuccessful asylum-seekers will have to leave sooner. Yet this policy paper falls short of solving the migration problem completely.

The Pact was adopted in 2024, and countries were given two more years to prepare for its implementation. Yet those meeting the deadlines remain a minority, and overall, the Pact is still far from being fully operational. To date, only half of the countries have made public their implementation plans and strategies.

The Pact’s second problem is complex implementation, for it provides for multiple interactions with migrant source countries outside the EU. The functioning of the Pact is based on a clear logic: externalization of migration governance to third countries of origin and transit in exchange for resources.

The Pact provides for a governance model that will increasingly develop outside European territory. So the operation of the model will inevitably be more complex and require significant resources in terms of administrative capacity, organizational structures, technical expertise, and coordination and monitoring mechanisms.

Although the Pact’s stated objective is to increase the effectiveness of migration governance, delays and difficulties in its implementation suggest that the risk of failing to achieve the expected results remains high.

The externalization policy carries risks of conflicts with States that are sources of migrants. In Mauritania, for example, externalization measures have been accompanied by strong domestic contestation and diplomatic tensions with European partners. As happened in 2021 between Spain and Morocco in the management of the Ceuta border, such tensions can escalate into full-blown crises, and migration can become a tool of geopolitical pressure. Enforced return of migrants can create problems in the relations with such countries.

Besides, Francesco Pasetti writes about the problems concerning migrants’ rights that arise under the new procedure. This is typical criticism of the Pact by left-wing activists and politicians. More than 200 academics from European universities have called the Pact ‘inhumane’ and demanded that the European Parliament and the Council reconsider their attitude towards Pact.

On the other hand, the Pact has been criticized by some right-wing politicians for not going far enough to prevent illegal immigration. Francesco Pasetti mentions this, too, as he argues that such measures tend more to divert migration flows than to prevent them, pushing migrants towards more dangerous routes and, in many cases, reinforcing irregular migration and smuggling networks.

Once again, the Brussels politicians have created a hybrid of different and incompatible positions that will, on the one hand, irregularize legal migration and, on the other hand, constrain EU countries willing to adopt a more restrictive migration policy.

In the meanwhile, polls show that migration remains the primary perceived threat for EU citizens, and Germany bans Citizen Vigilante, a film directed by Uwe Boll in which a former army officer fights migrant criminals on his own – and is commended by the public but persecuted by the government and police.

Source: https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/pact-enters-force-uncertainties-and-risks-new-european-migration-governance