NATO Not Ready to Fight Russia

The Iranian war has shown this in five ways at least: NATO faces all sorts of problems.

And even though NATO has stayed out of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, the conflict has nevertheless exposed cracks in the alliance’s defenses that would see it struggle if Russia attacks.

Victor Jack from POLITICO spoke to a dozen diplomats, current and former NATO officials, and defense experts. Some of them were even granted anonymity so that they could speak freely about the sensitive issue. The interviews helped identify five significant gaps in the alliance, laid bare by the war in the Middle East.

1. No ammo

The U.S. expended around half its total inventory of critical Patriot air defense missiles, while French officials warned that stocks of its Aster and Mica missiles were running low as soon as the first two weeks of the war. Defense firms like Rheinmetall and MBDA have also pointed to surging demand and looming shortages.

Unless NATO changes tack, Russia ‘will price us out of a war quickly,’ warned Calvin Bailey, a lawmaker from Britain’s ruling Labour Party on the U.K. parliament’s defense committee.

With Moscow producing ‘6,000 to 7,000’ one-way attack drones per month, NATO allies would be left without air defense missiles within ‘weeks or even days,’ said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

NATO now seems compelled to build out passive defenses like hardened concrete aircraft shelters.

2. Air inferiority

Despite the U.S. aerial campaign, Iran has retained its ability to bomb neighboring Gulf States and actively used it to deal over 5,000 missile and drone strikes, says Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

In response, NATO must rethink air dominance and ‘look for creative solutions to deter Russia’. Mr. Bronk believes these to include ‘turbocharging investment in long-range precision strike weapons’, which is quite costly in itself.

3. Underpowered navies

Europe’s limited deployment to help Gulf allies has also illustrated glaring issues in NATO navies.

The clearest example is the U.K. After taking three weeks to deploy its destroyer warship toward the Mediterranean, it sent the vessel back to port over a technical hitch. And this is a country that has once called itself ‘Mistress of the Seas’.

Britain's maritime chief General Gwyn Jenkins acknowledged the Royal Navy was not ready for war, arguing other allies were also lagging behind. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney previously said that less than half his country’s fleet was operational. And things will go from bad to worse.

‘In any conflict with Moscow, navies will be essential in hunting down submarines near Russia’s northern Kola Peninsula and neutralizing vessels equipped with long-range cruise missiles. Now we are not equipped to do this’, said Sidharth Kaushal, a maritime security expert.

4. Enduring disunity

The war has also widened the chasm inside NATO. Europe has ignored U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for military support, prompting Washington to draw up options for retaliation. The latter has continued to slam NATO, repeatedly branding it a ‘paper tiger.’

The risk after Iran, ex NATO official Ed Arnold believes, is that “the president can say ‘We're not getting involved this time round,’” or commit only to a limited deployment if Moscow invades.

In response, European capitals must adopt the same ‘transactional approach’ as Trump, said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary-general. They should clearly link their support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Washington’s commitment to NATO. This is a challenge, for Europe lacks a figure who could speak on an equal footing with Trump.

5. Ukraine matters

Within days after the start of the war in Iran, Ukraine sent its drone experts, well-versed in using homegrown interceptors to shoot down Iranian Shahed-type drones used by Russia, to assist countries across the Middle East. Kyiv eventually signed decade-long defense partnerships with Gulf nations.

‘Ukraine is acting as a security provider, and it should continue in this function,’ an unnamed NATO diplomat said. Yet no details have ever been published on the practical results of Ukrainians’ trip to the Iranian war, and Ukrainian soldiers continue dying in thousands, with the frontline remaining where it was.

To sum it up, we can say that the alliance faces very big problems that will take long years and many billions of dollars to address.